Know Sure Thing

Strategy

Data as of Sunday, Mar 22, 2026

MetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValue
Return & Growth
Total return+25.30%Net profit$252,957Gross profit$782,123Gross loss$581,142CAGR+2.82%Annualized return+2.82%Monthly average return+0.32%Median monthly return+1.18%
Best month return+10.24%Worst month return-6.74%Rolling 1-month return+19.73%Log return CAGR+46.88%Compounded vs simple return difference-13.10%
Risk & Drawdown
Maximum drawdown+23.19%Average drawdown+8.92%Median drawdown-6.85%Drawdown duration (max)673.4 daysAverage drawdown duration29.4 daysUlcer index10.08Pain index7.03Pain ratio7.57
Drawdown volatility4.44Worst peak-to-trough loss+23.19%% time in drawdown+85.10%Drawdown area631.32Downside deviation+14.40%Semi-variance3.64
Risk-Adjusted Ratios
Sharpe ratio0.29Rolling 1-month Sharpe1.87Sortino ratio0.46Calmar ratio0.19Sterling ratio0.19Burke ratio0.73Return / volatility2.06Return / downside risk1.94
Return / max drawdown1.27
Trade-Level Statistics
Total trades31Win rate+45.16%Loss rate+54.84%Average win+5.56%Average loss-3.24%Win/Loss ratio1.79Expectancy+0.71%Profit factor1.53
Payoff ratio1.79Best trade+17.34%Worst trade-10.23%Trade return standard deviation+4.14%Consecutive wins (max)4Consecutive losses (max)5
Distribution & Shape
Volatility (annualized)+15.27%
Benchmark (Beta, Alpha, IR)
Beta to benchmark0.00Alpha vs benchmark %+5.18%Information ratio-0.49Treynor ratio0.03

Parameter optimization

Optimization data not available for this strategy. Run npm run pipeline or npm run pipeline:test to generate parameter grid results.

Chart for symbol:

Charts & distributions

Equity curve

Drawdown (underwater)

Rolling 1-month Sharpe

Rolling 1-month return (%)

Period return (≈ monthly)

Return distribution (bar returns)

Performance metrics (tabular)

MetricValue
Total return+4.93%
Net profit$49,319
Gross profit$634,073
Gross loss$544,171
CAGR+0.97%
Annualized return+0.97%
Monthly average return+0.13%
Median monthly return+0.71%
Best month return+12.81%
Worst month return-17.58%
Rolling 1-month return+17.41%
Log return CAGR-2.42%
Compounded vs simple return difference-5.90%

Index Performance Statistics

Performance metrics for each index symbol tested with this strategy.

IndexCountryReturn %SharpeSortinoMax DD %Win Rate %TradesProfit FactorVolatility %
MervalArgentina+327.19%1.032.14+35.99%+63.33%304.24+24.91%
S&P/ASX 200Australia-1.95%-0.05-0.06+20.55%+38.24%341.01+8.17%
BovespaBrazil+10.28%0.190.27+20.38%+45.16%311.30+10.53%
TSX CompositeCanada+9.02%0.220.30+15.86%+53.13%321.29+7.84%
Euro Stoxx 50Europe+30.33%0.550.83+15.90%+44.83%291.72+9.34%
Euronext 100Europe+35.33%0.731.09+12.77%+46.67%301.95+7.94%
CAC 40France+22.92%0.430.61+15.80%+46.43%281.68+9.28%
DAXGermany+33.42%0.640.97+16.57%+55.17%291.87+8.65%
Hang SengHong Kong+7.25%0.090.14+26.11%+44.83%291.21+16.06%
BSE SensexIndia+19.46%0.430.63+15.85%+40.00%251.69+8.29%
Nifty 50India+13.40%0.300.43+16.75%+37.04%271.40+8.42%
Nikkei 225Japan+9.52%0.150.22+19.57%+41.94%311.26+12.26%
KOSPISouth Korea+30.09%0.360.53+27.98%+40.63%321.60+14.66%
Swiss MarketSwitzerland+12.31%0.320.45+16.06%+44.44%271.41+7.30%
Taiwan WeightedTaiwan+50.68%0.771.27+13.10%+43.33%302.11+10.59%
FTSE 100UK+13.93%0.380.54+12.14%+48.39%311.57+6.84%
CBOE Volatility IndexUS-79.44%-0.28-0.46+89.20%+32.43%370.58+101.35%
Dow Jones Industrial AverageUS+0.99%0.020.03+20.09%+47.06%341.10+8.95%
NASDAQ CompositeUS-11.21%-0.17-0.23+24.14%+41.03%390.93+14.12%
Russell 2000US-7.24%-0.10-0.14+31.87%+35.29%340.96+14.91%
S&P 500US+4.93%0.090.13+20.25%+58.97%391.17+10.33%