Know Sure Thing

Strategy

Data as of Monday, Feb 16, 2026

MetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValue
Return & Growth
Total return+28.75%Net profit$287,547Gross profit$793,441Gross loss$557,700CAGR+3.53%Annualized return+3.53%Monthly average return+0.38%Median monthly return+0.85%
Best month return+6.15%Worst month return-4.01%Rolling 1-month return+9.91%Log return CAGR+1.33%Compounded vs simple return difference-28.88%
Risk & Drawdown
Maximum drawdown+23.12%Average drawdown+8.81%Median drawdown-4.19%Drawdown duration (max)661.5 daysAverage drawdown duration24.5 daysUlcer index9.97Pain index4.49Pain ratio12.58
Drawdown volatility2.93Worst peak-to-trough loss+23.12%% time in drawdown+81.57%Drawdown area391.16Downside deviation+13.97%Semi-variance2.09
Risk-Adjusted Ratios
Sharpe ratio0.36Rolling 1-month Sharpe1.80Sortino ratio0.58Calmar ratio0.23Sterling ratio0.23Burke ratio1.13Return / volatility2.50Return / downside risk2.42
Return / max drawdown1.49
Trade-Level Statistics
Total trades31Win rate+46.21%Loss rate+53.79%Average win+5.63%Average loss-3.19%Win/Loss ratio1.84Expectancy+0.83%Profit factor1.63
Payoff ratio1.84Best trade+17.32%Worst trade-10.23%Trade return standard deviation+4.10%Consecutive wins (max)4Consecutive losses (max)5
Distribution & Shape
Volatility (annualized)+15.01%
Benchmark (Beta, Alpha, IR)
Beta to benchmark-0.02Alpha vs benchmark %+3.52%Information ratio-0.49Treynor ratio0.01

Parameter optimization

Optimization data not available for this strategy. Run npm run pipeline or npm run pipeline:test to generate parameter grid results.

Chart for symbol:

Charts & distributions

Equity curve

Drawdown (underwater)

Rolling 1-month Sharpe

Rolling 1-month return (%)

Period return (≈ monthly)

Return distribution (bar returns)

Performance metrics (tabular)

MetricValue
Total return+5.05%
Net profit$50,477
Gross profit$635,201
Gross loss$544,171
CAGR+0.99%
Annualized return+0.99%
Monthly average return+0.13%
Median monthly return-0.17%
Best month return+4.08%
Worst month return-6.61%
Rolling 1-month return+5.02%
Log return CAGR-6.87%
Compounded vs simple return difference-7.80%

Index Performance Statistics

Performance metrics for each index symbol tested with this strategy.

IndexCountryReturn %SharpeSortinoMax DD %Win Rate %TradesProfit FactorVolatility %
MervalArgentina+317.17%1.012.10+35.99%+62.07%294.18+24.90%
S&P/ASX 200Australia-0.83%-0.02-0.03+20.55%+39.39%331.04+8.08%
BovespaBrazil+16.17%0.280.41+20.35%+46.88%321.35+10.72%
TSX CompositeCanada+14.41%0.340.47+15.81%+56.25%321.43+7.76%
Euro Stoxx 50Europe+38.24%0.681.05+15.90%+48.28%291.97+9.19%
Euronext 100Europe+40.39%0.831.28+12.77%+48.28%292.19+7.76%
CAC 40France+25.51%0.480.70+15.80%+46.43%281.78+9.05%
DAXGermany+39.71%0.761.19+16.58%+55.17%292.11+8.42%
Hang SengHong Kong+5.36%0.070.10+26.13%+43.33%301.17+16.10%
BSE SensexIndia+21.33%0.470.70+15.85%+40.00%251.78+8.22%
Nifty 50India+22.68%0.480.70+15.47%+39.29%281.65+8.57%
Nikkei 225Japan+13.82%0.220.32+19.49%+40.63%321.35+12.16%
KOSPISouth Korea+32.93%0.460.73+27.98%+41.94%311.66+12.20%
Swiss MarketSwitzerland+17.28%0.440.64+16.07%+46.43%281.55+7.16%
Taiwan WeightedTaiwan+64.52%0.941.62+13.01%+46.67%302.51+10.42%
FTSE 100UK+13.80%0.390.56+12.14%+48.39%311.57+6.60%
CBOE Volatility IndexUS-76.20%-0.26-0.43+89.20%+31.43%350.62+99.61%
Dow Jones Industrial AverageUS+4.39%0.100.13+20.00%+51.61%311.16+8.91%
NASDAQ CompositeUS-2.80%-0.04-0.06+24.20%+44.74%381.05+14.14%
Russell 2000US-9.07%-0.13-0.18+31.87%+35.29%340.93+14.89%
S&P 500US+5.05%0.090.13+20.27%+57.89%381.17+10.32%