Linear Regression Reversion

Strategy

Data as of Sunday, Mar 22, 2026

MetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValue
Return & Growth
Total return+6.85%Net profit$68,533Gross profit$223,265Gross loss$154,144CAGR+1.24%Annualized return+1.24%Monthly average return+0.11%Median monthly return+1.28%
Best month return+5.90%Worst month return-5.62%Rolling 1-month return+9.54%Log return CAGR+10.02%Compounded vs simple return difference+0.00%
Risk & Drawdown
Maximum drawdown+13.68%Average drawdown+4.98%Median drawdown-5.25%Drawdown duration (max)1154.2 daysAverage drawdown duration52.1 daysUlcer index5.76Pain index5.05Pain ratio7.44
Drawdown volatility3.24Worst peak-to-trough loss+13.68%% time in drawdown+88.18%Drawdown area769.76Downside deviation+17.84%Semi-variance1.50
Risk-Adjusted Ratios
Sharpe ratio0.18Rolling 1-month Sharpe1.67Sortino ratio0.35Calmar ratio0.17Sterling ratio0.17Burke ratio0.28Return / volatility1.05Return / downside risk0.49
Return / max drawdown0.90
Trade-Level Statistics
Total trades18Win rate+65.47%Loss rate+34.53%Average win+2.15%Average loss-2.62%Win/Loss ratio0.82Expectancy+0.45%Profit factor1.64
Payoff ratio0.82Best trade+4.64%Worst trade-6.78%Trade return standard deviation+1.55%Consecutive wins (max)5Consecutive losses (max)3
Distribution & Shape
Volatility (annualized)+7.02%
Benchmark (Beta, Alpha, IR)
Beta to benchmark0.05Alpha vs benchmark %+0.84%Information ratio-0.66Treynor ratio0.02

Performance Comparison

Compare variants: other parameter variations of the same base strategy.

MetricLinear Regression ReversionLinear Regression Slope
Return & Growth
Total return+6.85%+89.48%
Net profit$68,533$894,821
Gross profit$223,265$821,606
Gross loss$154,144$658,297
CAGR+1.24%+3.45%
Annualized return+1.24%+3.45%
Monthly average return+0.11%+0.25%
Median monthly return+1.28%-0.72%
Best month return+5.90%+6.11%
Worst month return-5.62%-10.02%
Rolling 1-month return+9.54%+14.18%
Log return CAGR+10.02%+1.99%
Compounded vs simple return difference+0.00%-91.24%
Risk & Drawdown
Maximum drawdown+13.68%+24.26%
Average drawdown+4.98%+11.95%
Median drawdown-5.25%-9.05%
Drawdown duration (max)1154.2 days971.8 days
Average drawdown duration52.1 days34.6 days
Ulcer index5.7612.89
Pain index5.059.51
Pain ratio7.448.67
Drawdown volatility3.245.41
Worst peak-to-trough loss+13.68%+24.26%
% time in drawdown+88.18%+87.03%
Drawdown area769.76863.22
Downside deviation+17.84%+14.58%
Semi-variance1.502.95
Risk-Adjusted Ratios
Sharpe ratio0.180.20
Rolling 1-month Sharpe1.671.43
Sortino ratio0.350.42
Calmar ratio0.170.22
Sterling ratio0.170.22
Burke ratio0.280.79
Return / volatility1.053.49
Return / downside risk0.494.09
Return / max drawdown0.903.24
Trade-Level Statistics
Total trades1829
Win rate+65.47%+40.89%
Loss rate+34.53%+59.11%
Average win+2.15%+6.84%
Average loss-2.62%-3.30%
Win/Loss ratio0.822.15
Expectancy+0.45%+0.75%
Profit factor1.641.57
Payoff ratio0.822.15
Best trade+4.64%+20.17%
Worst trade-6.78%-9.90%
Trade return standard deviation+1.55%+4.54%
Consecutive wins (max)53
Consecutive losses (max)36
Distribution & Shape
Volatility (annualized)+7.02%+16.07%
Benchmark (Beta, Alpha, IR)
Beta to benchmark0.050.02
Alpha vs benchmark %+0.84%+3.57%
Information ratio-0.66-0.48
Treynor ratio0.020.03

Parameter optimization

Optimization data not available for this strategy. Run npm run pipeline or npm run pipeline:test to generate parameter grid results.

Chart for symbol:

Charts & distributions

Equity curve

Drawdown (underwater)

Rolling 1-month Sharpe

Rolling 1-month return (%)

Period return (≈ monthly)

Return distribution (bar returns)

Performance metrics (tabular)

MetricValue
Total return+11.83%
Net profit$118,327
Gross profit$271,391
Gross loss$153,194
CAGR+2.27%
Annualized return+2.27%
Monthly average return+0.20%
Median monthly return+0.86%
Best month return+7.53%
Worst month return-5.90%
Rolling 1-month return+14.68%
Log return CAGR+16.95%
Compounded vs simple return difference+0.00%

Index Performance Statistics

Performance metrics for each index symbol tested with this strategy.

IndexCountryReturn %SharpeSortinoMax DD %Win Rate %TradesProfit FactorVolatility %
MervalArgentina+16.43%0.571.23+6.89%+100.00%50.00+5.47%
S&P/ASX 200Australia+0.24%0.010.01+10.65%+63.16%191.05+4.80%
BovespaBrazil-8.35%-0.43-0.55+12.98%+55.56%90.38+4.12%
TSX CompositeCanada+2.30%0.080.11+8.25%+60.87%231.18+5.85%
Euro Stoxx 50Europe+11.97%0.310.43+9.76%+73.91%231.65+7.19%
Euronext 100Europe+3.00%0.090.11+13.59%+76.19%211.22+6.74%
CAC 40France+7.17%0.230.32+8.91%+72.73%221.60+5.98%
DAXGermany+8.75%0.200.30+13.77%+72.73%221.60+8.17%
Hang SengHong Kong-3.82%-0.13-0.17+21.81%+52.94%170.88+6.16%
BSE SensexIndia+16.30%0.731.37+5.32%+64.71%173.20+4.17%
Nifty 50India+22.81%0.861.59+5.16%+68.42%193.60+4.76%
Nikkei 225Japan+12.57%0.290.45+12.58%+66.67%182.26+8.36%
KOSPISouth Korea+28.18%0.561.00+10.55%+70.00%202.75+8.95%
Swiss MarketSwitzerland-21.25%-0.77-0.88+22.40%+35.00%200.25+6.36%
Taiwan WeightedTaiwan-3.69%-0.08-0.11+18.80%+53.33%150.78+9.55%
FTSE 100UK+5.72%0.190.24+11.02%+71.43%211.40+5.94%
CBOE Volatility IndexUS-9.11%-0.13-0.21+35.28%+57.14%70.92+14.99%
Dow Jones Industrial AverageUS-5.15%-0.17-0.25+16.28%+50.00%200.77+6.21%
NASDAQ CompositeUS+24.01%0.450.81+15.81%+75.00%202.70+9.45%
Russell 2000US+24.01%0.611.12+13.22%+71.43%144.42+6.89%
S&P 500US+11.83%0.300.49+14.25%+63.64%221.77+7.27%