Linear Regression Reversion

Strategy

Data as of Monday, Feb 16, 2026

MetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValueMetricValue
Return & Growth
Total return+7.42%Net profit$74,202Gross profit$219,768Gross loss$144,630CAGR+1.36%Annualized return+1.36%Monthly average return+0.12%Median monthly return+1.43%
Best month return+6.08%Worst month return-4.65%Rolling 1-month return+9.03%Log return CAGR+14.64%Compounded vs simple return difference-2.96%
Risk & Drawdown
Maximum drawdown+13.65%Average drawdown+4.95%Median drawdown-5.65%Drawdown duration (max)1139.4 daysAverage drawdown duration25.9 daysUlcer index5.70Pain index5.37Pain ratio5.55
Drawdown volatility3.18Worst peak-to-trough loss+13.65%% time in drawdown+84.81%Drawdown area443.32Downside deviation+17.79%Semi-variance1.38
Risk-Adjusted Ratios
Sharpe ratio0.21Rolling 1-month Sharpe1.49Sortino ratio0.39Calmar ratio0.17Sterling ratio0.17Burke ratio0.34Return / volatility1.20Return / downside risk0.53
Return / max drawdown0.93
Trade-Level Statistics
Total trades17Win rate+66.51%Loss rate+33.49%Average win+2.14%Average loss-2.65%Win/Loss ratio0.80Expectancy+0.48%Profit factor1.72
Payoff ratio0.80Best trade+4.41%Worst trade-6.73%Trade return standard deviation+1.51%Consecutive wins (max)5Consecutive losses (max)3
Distribution & Shape
Volatility (annualized)+6.82%
Benchmark (Beta, Alpha, IR)
Beta to benchmark0.05Alpha vs benchmark %+0.73%Information ratio-0.57Treynor ratio0.03

Performance Comparison

Compare variants: other parameter variations of the same base strategy.

MetricLinear Regression ReversionLinear Regression Slope
Return & Growth
Total return+7.42%+88.84%
Net profit$74,202$888,416
Gross profit$219,768$829,646
Gross loss$144,630$655,360
CAGR+1.36%+3.74%
Annualized return+1.36%+3.74%
Monthly average return+0.12%+0.26%
Median monthly return+1.43%+1.13%
Best month return+6.08%+4.95%
Worst month return-4.65%-4.85%
Rolling 1-month return+9.03%+10.44%
Log return CAGR+14.64%+12.95%
Compounded vs simple return difference-2.96%-86.19%
Risk & Drawdown
Maximum drawdown+13.65%+24.28%
Average drawdown+4.95%+11.98%
Median drawdown-5.65%-5.74%
Drawdown duration (max)1139.4 days982.0 days
Average drawdown duration25.9 days28.4 days
Ulcer index5.7012.91
Pain index5.375.63
Pain ratio5.5529.15
Drawdown volatility3.182.70
Worst peak-to-trough loss+13.65%+24.28%
% time in drawdown+84.81%+82.38%
Drawdown area443.32509.43
Downside deviation+17.79%+14.14%
Semi-variance1.381.74
Risk-Adjusted Ratios
Sharpe ratio0.210.24
Rolling 1-month Sharpe1.491.82
Sortino ratio0.390.49
Calmar ratio0.170.24
Sterling ratio0.170.24
Burke ratio0.342.68
Return / volatility1.203.68
Return / downside risk0.534.34
Return / max drawdown0.933.22
Trade-Level Statistics
Total trades1730
Win rate+66.51%+41.66%
Loss rate+33.49%+58.34%
Average win+2.14%+6.70%
Average loss-2.65%-3.26%
Win/Loss ratio0.802.16
Expectancy+0.48%+0.77%
Profit factor1.721.62
Payoff ratio0.802.16
Best trade+4.41%+19.26%
Worst trade-6.73%-9.90%
Trade return standard deviation+1.51%+4.45%
Consecutive wins (max)53
Consecutive losses (max)36
Distribution & Shape
Volatility (annualized)+6.82%+15.77%
Benchmark (Beta, Alpha, IR)
Beta to benchmark0.050.00
Alpha vs benchmark %+0.73%-0.43%
Information ratio-0.57-0.55
Treynor ratio0.030.01

Parameter optimization

Optimization data not available for this strategy. Run npm run pipeline or npm run pipeline:test to generate parameter grid results.

Chart for symbol:

Charts & distributions

Equity curve

Drawdown (underwater)

Rolling 1-month Sharpe

Rolling 1-month return (%)

Period return (≈ monthly)

Return distribution (bar returns)

Performance metrics (tabular)

MetricValue
Total return+11.83%
Net profit$118,327
Gross profit$271,391
Gross loss$153,194
CAGR+2.27%
Annualized return+2.27%
Monthly average return+0.20%
Median monthly return+2.44%
Best month return+8.44%
Worst month return-6.56%
Rolling 1-month return+10.30%
Log return CAGR+5.05%
Compounded vs simple return difference-9.88%

Index Performance Statistics

Performance metrics for each index symbol tested with this strategy.

IndexCountryReturn %SharpeSortinoMax DD %Win Rate %TradesProfit FactorVolatility %
MervalArgentina+16.43%0.571.23+6.89%+100.00%50.00+5.47%
S&P/ASX 200Australia+3.77%0.160.23+10.65%+66.67%181.38+4.53%
BovespaBrazil-8.55%-0.46-0.59+12.98%+50.00%80.36+3.94%
TSX CompositeCanada+2.30%0.080.11+8.25%+60.87%231.18+5.85%
Euro Stoxx 50Europe+15.05%0.410.57+9.76%+77.27%221.93+6.80%
Euronext 100Europe+3.18%0.090.12+13.59%+80.00%201.23+6.62%
CAC 40France+9.65%0.310.44+8.91%+76.19%211.96+5.83%
DAXGermany+11.98%0.280.43+13.77%+76.19%211.99+7.86%
Hang SengHong Kong-3.82%-0.13-0.17+21.81%+52.94%170.88+6.15%
BSE SensexIndia+16.30%0.731.37+5.32%+64.71%173.20+4.17%
Nifty 50India+22.81%0.861.59+5.16%+68.42%193.60+4.76%
Nikkei 225Japan+11.23%0.280.44+12.58%+64.71%172.14+7.86%
KOSPISouth Korea+16.01%0.440.70+10.55%+68.42%192.05+6.82%
Swiss MarketSwitzerland-17.20%-0.62-0.72+21.80%+40.00%200.33+6.28%
Taiwan WeightedTaiwan-3.69%-0.08-0.11+18.80%+53.33%150.78+9.54%
FTSE 100UK+5.59%0.180.24+11.02%+70.00%201.39+5.88%
CBOE Volatility IndexUS-9.11%-0.13-0.21+35.28%+57.14%70.92+14.99%
Dow Jones Industrial AverageUS-1.24%-0.04-0.06+16.28%+52.63%190.95+6.04%
NASDAQ CompositeUS+24.01%0.450.81+15.81%+75.00%202.70+9.45%
Russell 2000US+29.29%0.711.32+13.21%+78.57%145.35+7.07%
S&P 500US+11.83%0.300.49+14.25%+63.64%221.77+7.27%