Stochastic Reversion

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Strategy

Methodology

This strategy is backtested on daily OHLCV price data across major US equity indices and ETFs. Entry and exit signals are generated from the strategy's indicators with no lookahead bias — trades execute at the open of the bar following the signal.

Performance metrics are computed per symbol and shown individually. The parameter optimization section (where available) runs a grid search over the strategy's key parameters, optimizing for Sharpe ratio. Transaction costs and slippage are not modeled.

The signal logic and indicator code for this strategy is shown in the methodology code section below.

Methodology

Mean-reversion using the Stochastic oscillator (%K and %D). Enters long when %K crosses above %D in oversold territory (below 20). Exits when %K crosses below %D in overbought territory (above 80).

Implementation

class StochasticReversion(Strategy):
    n = 14
    d = 3

    def init(self):
        k_vals = _stoch_k(self.data.High, self.data.Low, self.data.Close, self.n)
        self.stoch_k = self.I(lambda: k_vals, name="K")
        self.stoch_d = self.I(_stoch_d, k_vals, self.d)

    def next(self):
        if self.stoch_k[-1] > self.stoch_d[-1] and self.stoch_k[-1] < 20 and not self.position:
            self.buy()
        elif self.stoch_k[-1] < self.stoch_d[-1] and self.stoch_k[-1] > 80 and self.position:
            self.position.close()

Performance metrics

Total return+20.502%
Net profit$205,018
Gross profit$500,715
Gross loss$298,140
CAGR+5.212%
Annualized return+5.212%
Monthly average return+0.438%
Median monthly return+1.236%
Best month return+11.484%
Worst month return-7.052%
Rolling 1-month return+18.513%
Return per trade+1.499
Log return CAGR+39.949%
Compounded vs simple return difference-4.270%

Equity curves

Chart for symbol:

Charts & distributions

2022-12 → 2026-04 · 5-year daily data

Equity curve vs ^GSPC — buy/sell signals

Strategy equityIndex (normalized)▲ Buy▼ Sell

12 trades · green dashes = buy entries · red dashes = sell exits

Drawdown (underwater)

Rolling 1-month Sharpe

Rolling 1-month return (%)

Period return (≈ monthly)

Return distribution (bar returns)

MAE vs MFE (trades)

Rolling 12m Beta

Rolling 12m correlation

Monthly returns (run)

Performance Matrix

Total return+24.669%
Net profit$246,690
Gross profit$529,400
Gross loss$267,170
CAGR+6.855%
Annualized return+6.855%
Monthly average return+0.555%
Median monthly return+1.785%
Best month return+18.387%
Worst month return-10.090%
Rolling 1-month return+27.668%
Return per trade+1.861
Log return CAGR+37.621%
Compounded vs simple return difference-0.000%